I can't tell you what to do regarding the employer vs. private insurance. However, I do know that once covered by an employer plan, if you leave or are terminated, they must offer your COBRA for 18 months, perhaps longer in some cases. Then, it is my UNDERSTANDING that as long as there are no lapses in coverage between COBRA and private insurance (should you need it), pre-existing conditions may not be denied. I UNDERSTAND an uninsured 63-day post group coverage expiration (including COBRA) grace period is also allowed and does not count as a lapse for pre-existing conditions.
You may want to investigate at
U.S. Department of LaborShould you find yourself able to drop the private insurance, maybe you take the former premium and put it into some kind of savings vehicle to hedge against any insurance uncertainties in the future. Just a thought. Good luck.